Title Page

Abstract

Acknowledgements

Chapters

Figures

Tables

1.1 Background

1.2 Statement of Problem and Objectives

1.3 Literature Survey

2.1 NCAR Foothills Facility

2.2 Room Selection

2.3 Data Accumulation and Formatting

2.4 Determination of Set of Office Rooms

2.5 Average Occupancy Statistics

2.6 Peak Occupancy Statistics

2.7 Entire Set Statistics

2.8 Average Decile Statistics

2.9 Set Size Statistics

3.1 DOE-2 Models Procedure

4.1 Prediction Tool Development

4.2 Occupancy Data Curve-fits: Average Decile Statistics

4.3 Occupancy Data Curve-fits: Set Size Statistics

4.4 Occupancy Data Curve-fits: Combined Data

4.5 Occupancy Data Comparison with ECW Data

5.1 Discussion of DOE-2 Models

5.2 Discussion of Economics

5.3 Peak Occupancy Prediction

5.4 Conclusions

5.5 Future Work

Figure 1.1 ASHRAE/IES 90.1-1989 Office Profiles

Figure 1.2 Public Service Company of Colorado Average SG Customer Annual Cost

Figure 2.1 NCAR Facility Typical Floor Bldg 2 Floor 3

Figure 2.2 Entire Set Occupancy Profiles

Figure 3.1 Denver: % Difference vs Energy Unit Charge

Figure 3.2 Grand Junction: % Difference vs Energy Unit Charge

Figure 3.3 Chicago: % Difference vs Energy Unit Charge

Figure 3.4 New York: % Difference vs Energy Unit Charge

Figure 3.5 Denver +1 StDev: % Difference vs Energy Unit Charge

Figure 3.6 Denver +2 StDev: % Difference vs Energy Unit Charge

Figure 4.1 Peak vs Avg: Set Size = 10

Figure 4.2 Peak vs Avg: Set Size = 20

Figure 4.3 Peak vs Avg: Set Size = 30

Figure 4.4 Peak vs Avg: Set Size = 40

Figure 4.5 Peak vs Avg: Set Size = 50

Figure 4.6 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 10, StDev = -2

Figure 4.7 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 10, StDev = -1

Figure 4.8 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 10, StDev = 0

Figure 4.9 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 10, StDev = +1

Figure 4.10 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 10, StDev = +2

Figure 4.11 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 50, StDev = -2

Figure 4.12 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 50, StDev = -1

Figure 4.13 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 50, StDev = 0

Figure 4.14 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 50, StDev = +1

Figure 4.15 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 50, StDev = +2

Figure 4.16 Comparison of Predictions with ECW Hourly Data

Figure 4.17 Comparison of Predictions with ECW Monthly Data

Table 2.1 Error Rates for 99 Office and Office Service Rooms

Table 2.2 Entire Set Occupancy Rates

Table 2.3 Average Decile Sets Occupancy Rates by Hours

Table 2.4 Average Decile Sets Occupancy Rates by Set Size

Table 3.1 DOE-2 Models Occupancy and Lighting Profiles

Table 3.2 "Peakday" Comparisons of Peak Demand Magnitude and Occurrence

Table 3.3 Comparison of Potential Savings, Denver

Table 3.4 Comparison of Potential Savings, Grand Junction

Table 3.5 Comparison of Potential Savings, Chicago

Table 3.6 Comparison of Potential Savings, New York

Table 3.7 Comparison of Potential Savings, Denver +1 StDev

Table 3.8 Comparison of Potential Savings, Denver +2 StDev

Table 3.9 Peak Demand Magnitude and Occurrence, Denver

Table 3.10 Peak Demand Magnitude and Occurrence, Grand Junction

Table 3.11 Peak Demand Magnitude and Occurrence, Chicago

Table 3.12 Peak Demand Magnitude and Occurrence, New York

Table 3.13 Peak Demand Magnitude and Occurrence, Denver +1 StDev

Table 3.14 Peak Demand Magnitude and Occurrence, Denver +2 StDev

Table 4.1 Linear Regressions of Occupancy Data: Average Decile Statistics

Table 4.2 Linear Regressions of Occupancy Data: Set Size Statistics

Table 4.3 Standard Deviations of Average And Peak: Set Size Statistics

Table 4.4 Multiple Regression of Occupancy Data

Table 4.5 Comparison of Predictions with Monthly Set Size Data

Table 4.6 Comparison of Predictions with Hourly Set Size Data

Table 4.7 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 10

Table 4.8 Comparison of Predictions for Set Size = 50

Table 4.9 Comparison of Predictions with ECW Data